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Predicting and adapting to the long-term effects of global climate change on U.S. water resources in the 21st century is a monumental challenge. But the Water Resource Adaptation Program (WRAP), developed by a water research team in the EPA's National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL), provides broad-based computer database and prediction methodologies while adaptation methodologies are being developed to take on the challenge. WRAP's research addresses both natural and human-made climate effects on the sustainability of U.S. water resources in meeting long-term growth and economic development.

While climate changes may have a global reach, human demands for safe and plentiful water are always issue-driven and region-specific. Based on this, WRAP's research focuses on the projection and resolution of local or regional water issues. Some examples include the:

• Potential reuse of wastewater in the drought-prone Great Plains states
• Remediation of saltwater intrusion into Florida and other coastal regions
• Mitigation of flash floods and storm water effects throughout the lower Mississippi basin.

WRAP is carrying out a national and regional assessment to characterize impacts on water resources, and on drinking water, storm water, and wastewater infrastructure to provide a framework for adaptation studies. The program is collaborating with researchers from universities and water utilities, state and regional agencies, and other stakeholders.

Background

The scientific community recognizes climate change as one of the most significant challenges ever faced, and predictions of climate effects on water sustainability are necessarily complex. The breadth of the WRAP program reflects that complexity; however, the program's two fundamental goals are clear:

• To identify historic variations in climate in order to adapt to natural effects on future water supplies
• To determine current human effects on climate in order to mitigate their effects on future water supplies.

To reach these goals, WRAP's research has two major components: to quantify hydroclimatic variations and to identify which are natural and which are human-made.

In the United States, the history of natural climate variations can be derived from computer models, as well as from weather records of precipitation, temperature, and other indicators gathered from more than a thousand observation stations over several hundred years. WRAP model analyses of these natural climatic events over decades, or even millennia, can help predict the future sustainability of water resources.

Human demographic and economic effects on climate and water supplies leave their own footprints for statistical assessment. WRAP's research factors into its projections such human-made inputs as land use, population growth, urbanization, and economic development, thereby providing information for planning and management of water infrastructure, emerging contaminants in alternative water sources, and water needs in alternative energy production.

The second component of WRAP's research is the development of adaptive engineering and technologies. This research seeks effective measures for reducing the negative impacts of climate changes. Using the findings from the first research component, NRMRL scientists and engineers are exploring ways to:

• Improve water quality under extreme precipitation conditions
• Explore alternative water resources to combat drought and meet the water needs of alternative energy production
• Reduce the impact of saltwater intrusions in coastal areas
• Ensure sustainable water supplies in new climate conditions.

Overall, WRAP recognizes that climatic and water systems are two separate but closely coupled physical systems. The program takes a holistic approach that integrates natural and human effects on the two systems to help answer potential challenges related to the EPA's role in providing standards for sustainable water supplies in the 21st century. A sampling includes the following:

• How will future precipitation patterns affect engineering designs for wastewater collection, drinking water source systems, and combined sewer overflows?
• What regions under increasing water stress may require alternative water sources (such as substantial reuse of wastewater), and how will Clean Water Act regulations be adapted to alternative water supply management?
• What are the effects of saltwater intrusion in coastal zones on groundwater sources of drinking water under probable climate-change scenarios, and what corresponding treatment actions may be required?
• What advanced water management concepts (such as decentralization of treatment and delivery systems) may be needed to support existing and aging water infrastructure systems?

Natural climate change, human population growth, and economic development have altered, and will continue to alter, the delicate balance between water sources and water demand around the globe. In the United States, the WRAP program and its interdisciplinary team are working to address the overarching scientific questions and find practical solutions to meeting the challenge of sustainable water supplies for the future.

For more information, contact Patricia Schultz, NRMRL Office of Public Affairs, (513) 569-7966.