Population growth, economic expansion, and energy resource constraints are just a few of the stressors posing new challenges for maintaining air quality in the future. Addressing these trends and identifying future risks to the global climate are crucial to preservation of the environment and human health. To support the agency's climate change research, EPA's National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) has established the Energy and Climate Assessment Team (ECAT). The ECAT is a multidisciplinary group that assesses emerging energy and pollution mitigation technologies and their potential effect on harmful emissions. With a focus on the energy and transportation sectors, ECAT helps the EPA to better understand how technological evolution can impact future air quality. Background In the past century, human impacts on the Earth have increased with population growth, changing technologies, and growing energy dependence. The global demand for energy and transportation is met largely through the combustion of fossil fuels, a major source of greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants. Coal, for example, the largest contributor of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, poses a concern as coal-fired power plants are being built at an unprecedented rate. Mitigating fossil fuel emissions has become a priority as policymakers have looked to the science community for technology to reduce the associated risks. The MARKAL Model ECAT researchers consider economic, social, and technological factors when assessing potentially cleaner technologies. Example technologies include:
A number of tools are used to analyze the potential effects of these technologies, including the MARKAL model. MARKAL, short for MARket ALlocation, is a model that represents an energy system from the extraction or import of fuels, through their conversion to useful forms to their use in meeting end-use service demands. To apply MARKAL, ECAT researchers have developed databases representing the major sectors in the U.S. energy system. The EPA National MARKAL Database (EPANMD) covers the nation as a single region, and includes the commercial, industrial, residential, transportation, and electricity generation sectors. The EPA Nine Region MARKAL Database (EPAUS9r) includes the same sectors, but with regional representation within the nine census divisions. Both databases project energy supply and demand through 2050. Using these MARKAL databases and other models, the ECAT team is able to investigate a wide range of scenarios, allowing for different variables in future technology characteristics, fuel costs, and energy policies to assess the potential impact of specific technologies on future air quality. For example, wind turbines can be evaluated and compared to conventional coal for meeting electricity demands. Interactions that may shift emissions across sectors are also captured. For example, hydrogen production from natural gas to power fuel cell vehicles can be studied for any fuel switching in the electric generation or industrial sector as demand for natural gas increases. Through these and other tools, NRMRL science is aiding the evolution of energy technology in emissions-intensive sectors of the U.S. economy. While emerging technologies may have higher costs and greater operational uncertainties than current technologies, ECAT's research provides policymakers with a solid scientific foundation for proactive decisions. For more information, contact Jane Ice, NRMRL Office of Public Affairs, 513-569-7311.
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