Ten years ago, Chicago hospitals were at ground zero when the deadly MRSA bacterium, until then confined to hospitals, learned some new tricks and spilled out into the community. This year, researchers from Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Chicago (UC) are teaming up to develop a unique new computer model to understand how the bacteria spread across Chicago—and how it might be prevented from spreading further. Argonne senior systems scientist Charles Macal and UC associate professor Diane Lauderdale received a grant from the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS), funded by the National Institutes of Health, to begin a five-year study to mathematically model MRSA outbreaks. Sometimes called "the flesh-eating bacterium," MRSA, or methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, is a new antibiotic-resistant strain of bacteria that kills more people annually in the U.S. than AIDS. MRSA is spread by close contact and by touching contaminated surfaces, and can often live harmlessly on the skin for years before infecting an open wound. To capture MRSA's travels more accurately, Macal and Lauderdale will use a new technique called agent-based modeling (ABM). Traditional epidemiological models do not take individual actor choices into account—each virtual person in the model is assumed to behave the same way. And as Macal's virtual patients "learn," so can the bacteria. "One of the best things about ABM is that we can even model the disease itself as an agent," Macal said. As it travels, changes to its genome can allow MRSA to modify its own structure and behaviors to adapt to new conditions created by the public response. "MRSA has evolved into a serious public health concern, most recently in cities like Baltimore and Chicago," said Irene Eckstrand of the National Institutes of Health's National Institute of General Medical Sciences. "Dr. Macal brings considerable experience in building computational models of complex processes to this important problem. We hope that his contributions lead to a better understanding of how MRSA is transmitted, and reveals public health practices that limit the spread of the disease." In their study, Macal and Lauderdale will run thousands of different simulations on Argonne's high-performance computers. In the long term, the scientists hope to create a versatile framework model for disease transmission. In the ideal model, researchers from any city could plug in their own demographic and disease data, and find the most effective ways to slow transmission. "We want to make a tool that provides the technical information policymakers need to know for making difficult decisions," Macal said. The Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory seeks solutions to pressing national problems in science and technology. The nation's first national laboratory, Argonne conducts leading-edge basic and applied scientific research in virtually every scientific discipline. Argonne researchers work closely with researchers from hundreds of companies; universities; and federal, state and municipal agencies to help solve their specific problems, advance America's scientific leadership, and prepare the nation for a better future. With employees from more than 60 nations, Argonne is managed by UChicago Argonne, LLC, for the Department of Energy's Office of Science.
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